Economic uncertainty hits Dutch leasing market in Q1

The Dutch leasing market recorded a sharp decline in the first quarter of 2026 as businesses delayed investment decisions amid ongoing economic uncertainty, according to new figures from industry association Leasing Nederland-NVL.

The value of leased business assets fell by 11.5% compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 and was down 7.8% year-on-year against the first quarter of 2025, marking a difficult start to the year for the sector.

Roel Winters, chairman of Leasing Nederland-NVL, said the leasing industry was reflecting wider economic conditions as businesses became more cautious about committing capital expenditure.

“Leasing is surfing the waves of the economy,” Winters said. “In recent years, companies have been very willing to invest in new business assets. Last year, we already saw a stagnation in volume at just under €8bn on an annual basis. Now we start the year with a significant decline, which manifests itself across the board.”

He added that businesses in key leasing markets, including construction, agriculture and transport, were increasingly postponing investment decisions in response to economic uncertainty.

The report highlights concerns that sectors traditionally reliant on leasing are facing a combination of weaker confidence and significant transition challenges. While some policymakers expect rising diesel costs and the introduction of truck charging schemes to accelerate the shift towards electric commercial vehicles, Winters said any meaningful change would take time.

“The replacement of diesel-powered trucks by electric trucks is a very long-term job,” he said, noting that fleet electrification requires substantial investment in vehicles, charging infrastructure and energy capacity.

Similar challenges are being experienced within the construction sector, where the transition towards zero-emission machinery is underway but remains dependent on the development of supporting infrastructure.

The trade association also pointed to structural changes within the Dutch leasing market following the withdrawal of a medium-sized German leasing company from the country.

Peter-Jan Bentein, secretary of Leasing Nederland-NVL, said that while the displaced business is expected to be absorbed by other leasing providers, the departure has created a noticeable gap in the market.

“Even though the expectation is that this volume will find its way to other leasing companies, there is still quite a gap in the market quite suddenly,” he said.

The report also revealed shifts in leasing distribution channels. Banks continue to hold the largest share of lease contract distribution, while the apparent decline in vendor finance activity reflects a change in reporting methodology rather than a significant drop in demand.

Under the revised approach, vendors financed on a portfolio basis are now allocated to the banking channel, providing what the association described as a clearer picture of traditional vendor leasing, which typically involves single leased assets and smaller contract values.

Meanwhile, the online channel continued to lose market share, suggesting customers are increasingly favouring more traditional routes to securing lease finance.