Dealers predict shake-up for European carmakers

Six in 10 used car dealers believe at least one major European car manufacturer could disappear within the next 10 years, according to new industry research that highlights growing concern over the future of traditional automotive brands.

The findings, from April’s Startline Used Car Tracker, show that 62% of dealers expect consolidation or failure among established European carmakers by the mid-2030s, as mounting economic and technological pressures reshape the global market.

Dealers point to the high cost of electrification as the biggest threat, cited by 40% of respondents. A further 32% believe European manufacturers will struggle to compete with lower-cost vehicles from emerging Chinese brands, which are rapidly gaining market share.

Other concerns include the pace of technological change, with 26% of dealers suggesting legacy carmakers risk falling behind in areas such as autonomous driving. Meanwhile, 10% say shifting consumer behaviour, particularly declining brand loyalty, could further erode the position of long-established marques.

Despite the pessimism, a significant minority of dealers see pathways to survival. Around 21% believe mergers and acquisitions could help sustain European manufacturers, while 18% say brands are already becoming more competitive with Chinese rivals. Another 18% point to the enduring strength of European design and branding, and 8% believe tariffs and market protections could provide a buffer.

“The level of competition in the new car market prompted by new entrants alongside the very high degree of investment required to electrify means this might be the toughest moment many long-established and storied European car makers have faced in living memory. They are under huge pressure.”

“Our research shows a majority of dealers don’t believe all these companies will survive into the mid-2030s as a result. However, others think mergers and acquisitions, market protections and sheer brand strength will play a part in their preservation.”

“It’s also interesting that almost one in five believe European car makers are already becoming more competitive with their Chinese counterparts and certainly some, such as Renault and BMW, appear to be successfully embracing electrification as an opportunity.”

The research also indicates that disruption is not limited to Europe. Nearly half (49%) of dealers believe Japanese and Korean manufacturers face similar risks, underlining the global scale of the transformation taking place across the automotive industry.

Burgess said the challenges facing European carmakers reflect a broader shift affecting all established manufacturers, with many confronting what could amount to an existential crisis as the industry transitions toward new technologies and business models.

The Startline Used Car Tracker is compiled monthly by APD Global Research and is based on responses from 300 consumers and 61 dealers, providing a snapshot of sentiment across the UK automotive market.