80% of UK drivers expect U-turn on 2030 petrol and diesel ban

A large majority of UK drivers doubt the government will meet its 2030 deadline to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, according to the latest Road to 2030 Report from Auto Trader. The research reveals flatlining demand for new electric vehicles (EVs), persistent affordability concerns, and surging interest in used EVs, all of which threaten to derail the UK’s ambitious Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.

Flatlining EV demand and falling confidence

So far in 2025, electric vehicles have accounted for just 18% of new car enquiries on Auto Trader, unchanged since early this year and far below the 28% market share mandated for 2025. While a surge in March briefly lifted interest ahead of tax changes in April, the momentum has not been sustained.

Based on current sales trends, EVs are projected to make up just 45% of new car sales by 2030, falling significantly short of the 80% target required to meet the UK government’s ban on new petrol and diesel vehicle sales.

Ian Plummer, Commercial Director of Auto Trader, commented: “There is genuine concern that 80% of consumers doubt the Government can meet its 2030 goal of banning new petrol and diesel vehicle sales.

“While the availability of affordable new and used EVs is increasing, and the £1.4 billion recently committed by the Government to support the transition is promising, it may take time for these improvements to reach and reassure the wider public.”

Used EV boom threatens mandate goals

Used EVs are emerging as a popular alternative, especially as prices become more accessible. Enquiries for second-hand EVs on Auto Trader have risen 92% since June 2023, and used electric models are now generating 15 times more enquiries than new ones.

This shift in demand is encouraging for mainstream EV adoption, but it poses a direct challenge to meeting new EV sales targets under the ZEV mandate. Consumers are increasingly turning to 3–5-year-old EVs, with nearly 12,000 used electric vehicles under £20,000 listed on Auto Trader, many priced below £10,000.

By contrast, there are only eight new electric models under £20,000, compared to 17 for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Just 3% of new EV enquiries are for models under £20,000, versus 42% for used EVs in that price bracket.

Affordability still the key barrier

Affordability remains the number one obstacle to new EV adoption. Over half (52%) of drivers cite price as their primary concern. Recent tax changes, including the Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) Expensive Car Supplement, which adds over £600 to the cost of a new EV, have worsened this perception, with 42% saying they are now less likely to go electric.

Most car buyers (78%) plan to spend under £20,000 on their next vehicle, yet only 33 new EVs are available at that price point, compared to 108 ICE and hybrid models.

New models offer hope, but won’t close the gap alone

Despite affordability challenges, new low-cost electric models are gaining traction. The Dacia Spring became Auto Trader’s most-viewed new electric car shortly after launch, and the Jaecoo 7 ranked second overall for new car views in May. These vehicles show that consumer demand is there, if the price is right.

Hybrids are also growing in popularity, now accounting for 37% of new car advert views, aided by the government’s decision to allow hybrid sales until 2035 under the ZEV Mandate extension.

Auto Trader is calling for urgent government action, including reversing punitive tax measures like the ECS and cutting VAT on new EVs and public charging. Plummer said: “The opportunity to convert curious buyers into confident adopters in their next car purchase is now, and we have to act. We urgently need to rethink the expensive car supplement and vehicle excise duty tax changes and to focus on public information campaigns to enable consumers to feel good about making the switch.”

While one in three new cars sold in the UK now comes with a plug, Auto Trader’s analysis suggests that without stronger policy and market interventions, the 2030 petrol and diesel ban may remain an ambition rather than a reality.