Global auto growth slows as EU output falls, reports ACEA

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has published its Economic and Market Report: Global and EU Auto Industry – First Half of 2025, highlighting diverging trends across regions as Europe struggles to maintain momentum against global growth.

Worldwide car registrations rose by 5% in the first half of 2025, reaching 37.4 million units. Growth was led by China, where sales surged 12% thanks to scrappage incentives and supportive new energy vehicle policies. North America saw a more modest increase of 2.5%, though concerns linger about demand softening later this year.

Europe, by contrast, fell behind: overall registrations declined by 2.4%, with EU demand down 1.9%. Stability came from markets outside the EU, including Türkiye, the UK, and EFTA countries.

Global car production climbed 3.5% to 37.7 million vehicles. Asia accounted for 60.1% of global output, with China recording a 12.3% jump supported by policy incentives and strong export demand. EU production, however, contracted by 2.6%, pressured by high energy costs, stricter CO₂ targets, and trade barriers. Still, EU-made cars maintained strong appeal abroad, with more than one-third exported, particularly to the UK, US, and Türkiye.

Shifting market shares
Germany remained Europe’s production powerhouse, responsible for 20% of cars sold in the EU, followed by Spain, Czechia, France, and Slovakia. EU manufacturers supplied 74% of the bloc’s market.

At the same time, imports from China expanded, with Chinese-made cars now accounting for 6% of EU sales — underscoring the competitive challenge posed by new entrants.

Trade performance
Trade in EU passenger cars weakened, with both imports and exports falling 3.3% in the first half of 2025. The sector’s trade surplus narrowed as imports from China climbed while exports to China plunged by 42%. In contrast, exports to the UK rose by 8.1%, though shipments to the U.S. dropped 13.6%.

Commercial vehicles: a difficult start to the year
Europe’s commercial vehicle market recorded declines across vans, trucks, and buses, reflecting a mix of long-term market normalisation and ongoing barriers to fleet renewal and zero-emission adoption. Spain’s van market offered some resilience, but overall demand across the EU’s largest markets remained subdued.

Production trends diverged sharply: global van output edged up 1%, but European van production fell by 6.8%, with declines in both the EU and the UK. Meanwhile, EU truck and bus production is forecast to rebound by year-end, rising 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively.

Trade dynamics also varied by segment, according to the report. The van sector’s trade surplus halved, the truck surplus narrowed 12.1%, and the bus segment’s trade deficit exceeded €1.2 billion.

The full ACEA Economic and Market Report: First Half of 2025 can be downloaded here.