US auto sales close year with lack of momentum

US auto sales ended 2025 on a subdued note, with December volumes projected at 1.4 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility. The estimate translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.4 million units, matching the muted pace recorded in October and November and leaving the fourth-quarter average at the same level.

The fourth quarter’s performance marks the slowest quarterly sales pace since the first quarter of 2023, signalling a cautious close to the year and an uneasy transition into 2026 for the automotive industry.

Looking ahead, S&P Global Mobility forecasts US auto sales of 15.89 million units in 2026, representing a 2.5% decline from the projected 2025 total of nearly 16.3 million units. The outlook reflects a persistently uncertain operating environment, shaped by affordability pressures and evolving policy dynamics.

“2026 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the auto industry as we progress from the volatile, but relatively solid 2025 result,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility.

“Unfortunately, the new vehicle affordability issues that have pushed against sustained momentum for US auto sales levels over the past two years remain entrenched. An already cautious consumer combined with potential OEM price adjustments translates to expectations that 2026 auto sales will decline from the 2025 level.”

Affordability challenges, including elevated vehicle prices and financing costs, continue to weigh heavily on consumer demand, limiting the industry’s ability to regain stronger sales momentum despite improving supply conditions compared with recent years.

Battery-electric vehicle sales face added uncertainty

The outlook for battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales has also become increasingly uncertain. S&P Global Mobility notes that auto policy implications stemming from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could further temper long-term growth in BEV demand.

In the near term, BEV sales and market share are expected to soften. While BEV share rose steadily from July through September, a notable decline has been observed in early fourth-quarter data. As both automakers and consumers adjust to post-incentive conditions, BEV sales softness is expected to persist through the first half of 2026.

BEVs are estimated to account for 6% of total US auto sales in December. Inventory levels tightened following a third-quarter surge, constraining early fourth-quarter market share. The December estimate suggests limited improvement from November levels.

Challenging start to 2026

As the industry enters 2026, US auto sales are expected to remain under pressure from affordability constraints and shifting electric vehicle policies. While demand has proven resilient in recent years, S&P Global Mobility cautions that the combination of cautious consumers, pricing dynamics, and policy uncertainty will likely keep sales growth restrained in the near term.