Businesses becoming more optimistic about fleet growth, research shows

Businesses are becoming more optimistic about the potential for car and van fleet growth, according to new research from Arval.

The 2026 Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory shows 33% are predicting a rise in vehicle numbers during the next three years – up from 28% in 2025.

However, there has also been an increase in the percentage who believe their fleet size will change – from 6% to 9% – while those who expect numbers to remain stable is down from 65% to 55%.

John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “This is a question we ask every year in the Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory Barometer and it provides a good indication, we believe, of how fleets are feeling about not just their individual operations but the wider economy.

“In our view, the results are an accurate reflection of the mood of the fleet sector at this moment. Businesses perhaps feel their situation is more stable than for several years and some growth is being seen but there remain significant downside risks, such as the possibility of sudden changes in global tariffs.”

Interestingly, smaller companies are making higher predictions of growth – 37% of those with 1-99 employees compared to 27% of those with more than 1,000. Larger companies also expect more contraction – 12% compared to 9%.

Peters said: “This might be reflective of the wider economy, with larger companies feeling more exposed to unpredictable international events and the impact of developing trends such as greater use of AI.”

Also, car-only UK fleets have a slightly brighter outlook than their mixed car-and-van counterparts with 39% expecting their numbers to rise – although contraction is also higher at 14%.

Peters said: “It is probable anticipated growth is being driven by rising salary sacrifice numbers, with schemes of this type continuing to drive company car popularity by providing an attractive employee benefit at little or no cost to the employer.”

Finally, UK car and van predictions of growth and contraction are both higher than the Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory Barometer’s European average of 22% growth and 5% contraction, and global average of 26% growth and 5% contraction.