US equipment finance industry confidence unchanged in July

Confidence in the US equipment finance market remained unchanged in July, with industry executives signalling broadly stable expectations for business conditions and capital expenditure demand over the coming months.

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association’s (ELFA) July 2026 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) recorded a reading of 63.7, unchanged from June. The index provides a qualitative assessment of prevailing business conditions and future expectations among executives in the $1.3 trillion US equipment finance sector.

Looking ahead to the next four months, 22.7% of executives expect business conditions to improve, down from 30.4% in June, while 72.7% anticipate conditions will remain the same, up from 65.5%. Just 4.6% expect conditions to worsen.

Expectations for capital expenditure financing were similarly stable. Some 28.6% of respondents expect demand for leases and loans to fund capex to increase over the next four months, down from 31.8% in June. Meanwhile, 66.7% expect demand to remain unchanged and 4.6% anticipate a decline.

The outlook for access to capital improved, with 33.3% of respondents expecting greater access to funding for equipment acquisitions over the next four months, compared with 27.3% in June. The remaining 66.7% expect access to remain unchanged, while no respondents anticipate a deterioration.

Hiring intentions also remained relatively positive. More than half (54.6%) of executives expect to increase employee numbers over the next four months, up from 50% in June. However, 9.1% expect to reduce headcount, compared with none the previous month.

Assessments of the wider US economy were mixed. Some 15% of respondents rated current economic conditions as “excellent”, up from 8.3% in June, while 80% described the economy as “fair” and 5% as “poor”.

Looking ahead six months, 22.7% expect US economic conditions to improve, while 63.6% believe they will remain unchanged. The proportion expecting conditions to worsen fell to 13.6%, from 25% in June.

Industry executives highlighted geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and regulation as potential headwinds, while resilient business investment, increased availability of private capital and the adoption of AI were identified as reasons for optimism.

“This is a ride that most want off of already. Just when it looks like there may be a resolution, things change and we are all waiting for the other shoe to drop.”

Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer at Isuzu Finance of America, said: “I remain optimistic about the near-term outlook for the US economy, supported by the continued strength of the labour market and resilient consumer spending. Although interest rates and inflation continue to be closely monitored, the underlying fundamentals of the domestic economy remain encouraging. That said, I recognise that international developments – including geopolitical tensions, global trade dynamics, and supply chain disruptions – have the potential to influence economic conditions and market sentiment. While these external factors warrant careful attention, I believe the strength of the US consumer and labour market positions the economy well to navigate potential headwinds.”

Mark Bonanno, President and Chief Revenue Officer at North Mill Equipment Finance, said: “I’m optimistic about where the industry is headed for a number of reasons. We’re in the midst of one of the strongest capital expenditure cycles we’ve seen in years, creating sustained demand across the markets we serve. At the same time, institutional investors and private credit providers continue to recognise the value of short-duration, cash-flowing equipment finance assets, bringing additional capital into the market as banks become more selective. Perhaps the biggest catalyst is technology. AI is levelling the playing field, giving independent finance companies the same capabilities that were once reserved for the largest financial institutions. It’s helping us make faster, more informed credit decisions, streamline documentation, improve pricing, and strengthen fraud detection. That said, the same technology is making fraud more sophisticated, and abundant capital can tempt some lenders to sacrifice pricing discipline in pursuit of volume.”

Business development spending expectations also remained relatively positive, with 40.9% of respondents expecting their companies to increase spending in this area over the next six months. The remaining 59.1% expect no change, while none anticipate a reduction.