US equipment finance confidence holds steady at year end

Confidence in the US equipment finance industry remained resilient at the end of 2025, according to a new survey from the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, pointing to expectations of broadly stable market conditions in the months ahead.

The Foundation’s December 2025 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI) came in at 58.3, easing slightly from 59.9 in November but staying at an elevated level for the seventh consecutive month. Readings above 50 indicate optimism among industry executives in the $1.3 trillion sector.

The survey suggests that most firms expect conditions to hold steady rather than improve or deteriorate. Looking ahead to the next four months, 75% of respondents said they believe business conditions will remain the same, up from 62.5% in November. The share expecting improvement fell to 12.5%, down from 25%, while 12.5% continue to anticipate a worsening outlook.

Expectations for capital expenditure (capex) demand also pointed to stability. Around 20.8% of executives expect demand for leases and loans to fund equipment purchases to increase, unchanged from the previous month. A larger majority, 75%, expect demand to remain flat, while only 4.2% foresee a decline, down sharply from 16.7% in November.

Access to capital is likewise expected to remain largely unchanged. Over the next four months, 70.8% of respondents anticipate the same level of access to capital as today, while 25% expect improved access. A small minority, 4.2%, now expect access to worsen, compared with none reporting this view in November.

Employment expectations strengthened noticeably. Half of surveyed executives said they plan to hire more staff over the next four months, up from one-third in November. Fewer firms now expect headcount to remain unchanged, and just 4.2% anticipate reducing staff levels.

Assessments of the wider US economy were more cautious. All respondents rated current economic conditions as “fair,” with none describing them as “excellent” or “poor.” Looking six months ahead, expectations softened: just 12.5% believe economic conditions will improve, down from 37.5% in November. The majority, 58.3%, expect conditions to stay the same, while nearly 30% believe the economy will worsen.

Plans for business development spending also reflected a wait-and-see approach. While 37.5% of respondents expect to increase spending in this area, most anticipate no change, and a small share foresee a reduction.

Industry leaders highlighted a mixed and uneven economic landscape. David Normandin, President and CEO of Wintrust Specialty Finance, said:

Others pointed to divergence across sectors. James D. Jenks, CEO of Global Finance and Leasing Services, said: “There are some areas in the economy that are booming, some areas that are depressed, and most of the market appears to be just flat.”

Jeffry Elliott, CEO of Elevex Capital, noted that: “The mixed economic environment will enable entrepreneurial equipment finance companies to thrive. I’m concerned about stagflation—inflation with a recession can be very troubling for any business or individual.”