US equipment finance industry confidence holds steady in September

Confidence in the US equipment finance industry remained steady in September, with expectations for capital expenditure demand and hiring strengthening despite continued economic uncertainty.

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association’s (ELFA) Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) stood at 62.4 in September, unchanged from August and remaining within the elevated range recorded over the past seven months.

The index provides a qualitative assessment of prevailing business conditions and expectations among executives in the $1.3 trillion US equipment finance sector.

Looking ahead over the next four months, 26.1% of respondents expect business conditions to improve, unchanged from August. The proportion expecting conditions to remain the same increased from 65.2% to 69.6%, while those anticipating a deterioration fell from 8.7% to 4.4%.

Expectations for equipment finance demand strengthened during the month. Almost a third of executives (31.8%) expect demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditure to increase over the next four months, up from 26.1% in August.

A further 63.6% expect demand to remain unchanged, while 4.6% anticipate a decline.

Hiring intentions also improved, with 47.8% of executives expecting to increase employee numbers over the next four months, compared with 42.9% in August. The same proportion expects headcount to remain unchanged, while 4.4% anticipate reducing employee numbers.

Expectations around access to capital remained broadly stable. More than a quarter (27.3%) expect access to capital for equipment acquisitions to increase, down from 33.3% in August, while 72.7% anticipate no change. No respondents expect access to capital to decline.

Views on the wider US economy remained more cautious. Some 91.7% of respondents described current economic conditions as “fair”, while 4.2% rated the economy as “excellent” and 4.2% as “poor”.

Looking six months ahead, 20.8% expect US economic conditions to improve, up from 18.2% in August. However, the proportion expecting conditions to worsen also increased, from 22.7% to 25%, while 54.2% anticipate little change.

Business development spending is expected to remain resilient, with 39.1% of executives anticipating an increase over the next six months and 60.9% expecting no change. No respondents expect spending to decrease.

David Normandin, President and Chief Executive Officer at Wintrust Specialty Finance, said:

“While uncertainty continues on several fronts, 2026 has been and continues to be a solid year in commercial equipment finance. Originations are good, portfolio performance is good, access to capital is good.

“Earning share of wallet is competitive which is good for the business, and the overall business continues to grow. I think we will have a strong finish to Q3, and I am optimistic about the opportunities in the fourth quarter.”

Meanwhile, Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer at Isuzu Finance of America, highlighted the potential for pent-up investment demand as businesses replace ageing equipment.

He said: “Many organisations have deferred equipment purchases for an extended period, and the continued maintenance of aging equipment is becoming increasingly uneconomical and operationally unsustainable.

“As a result, I expect a wave of replacement and modernisation activity as businesses move to invest in newer, more efficient equipment to support growth and productivity.”

Tariffs also remain a significant consideration for the sector. Jeffry Elliott, CEO of Elevex Capital, said their effects were being felt across acquisition costs, residual values and the timing of investment decisions.

“New equipment came up in price, used equipment softened, and the spread between the two is where lenders will find out how disciplined they really were,” Elliott said.

“Equipment finance has always been a business of absorbing volatility our customers can’t. Tariffs just made that job more visible.”