US equipment finance confidence falls to 11-month low amid Iran war concerns

Confidence in the US equipment finance industry has dropped sharply to its lowest level in nearly a year, as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty weigh on executive sentiment.

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) reported that its Monthly Confidence Index (MCI) fell to 54.6 in April 2026, down from 61.0 in March. The latest reading marks the weakest level since May 2025, when confidence was impacted by the announcement of universal tariffs under the Trump administration.

The index, which reflects the outlook of executives across the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector, points to growing unease about the months ahead, driven in part by the ongoing war in Iran.

Survey responses show a clear shift toward caution. Just 11.8% of executives expect business conditions to improve over the next four months, a sharp drop from 29.2% in March. Meanwhile, the proportion expecting conditions to worsen nearly doubled to 29.4%.

Demand for finance to support capital expenditure (capex) also appears to be softening. Only 10.5% of respondents anticipate an increase in demand, down from 37.5% the previous month, while more than one in five now expect a decline.

Although access to capital remains relatively stable, sentiment has edged lower, with a small but growing share of executives expecting tighter conditions.

Broader economic confidence is also deteriorating. None of the respondents rated the current US economy as “excellent,” while 5.6% now describe it as “poor.” Looking ahead, more than a third (36.8%) believe economic conditions will worsen over the next six months.

Comments from industry leaders suggest the war in Iran is playing a significant role in shaping sentiment.

Jeffry Elliott, chief executive of Elevex Capital, warned that the conflict is already contributing to a global recessionary trend: “War in Iran has begun a global economic recessionary movement as many eastern nations lack access to oil and natural gas, which are major components to many sectors in their economies and cannot be readily replaced. Expect international markets to slide first, then contagion to US markets.”

James Jenks, CEO of Global Finance and Leasing Services, also pointed to the economic strain caused by the conflict: “The war in Iran is causing economic challenges for some people and businesses. The sooner it is over, the better.”

Despite the concerns, some executives remain cautiously optimistic.

“We are optimistic of the opportunities that we will find strategy to execute on, but we are paying strong attention to portfolio performance and increasing bankruptcies to date in 2026,” he added.

Similarly, Jim DeFrank, chief operating officer at Isuzu Finance of America, noted: “I remain optimistic about the near-term outlook for the equipment finance industry and the broader economy,” he said. “Continued investment in productivity and modernization is creating favourable conditions for growth.”

One area of relative resilience is employment. More than 42% of executives expect to increase hiring over the next four months, suggesting firms are still positioning for growth despite a more uncertain outlook.

However, spending on business development is becoming more cautious, with fewer firms planning to increase investment and a growing number opting to hold spending steady.

The latest MCI results paint a picture of an industry balancing near-term opportunity with rising global risks. While underlying demand drivers such as business investment remain intact, external shocks – particularly geopolitical conflict – are beginning to weigh more heavily on confidence.

As the situation in Iran evolves and economic conditions remain uncertain, the US equipment finance sector appears to be entering a more cautious phase after a relatively strong start to 2026.