Europe’s asset finance sector builds resilience and prepares for growth in H1 2026

The next chapter of European asset finance is defined by resilience, strategic adaptation and renewed confidence. Finance Connect’s latest European Asset Finance Outlook H1 2026, sponsored by Alfa, shows an industry that has outperformed expectations over the past six months and is positioning itself for steady growth, despite geopolitical uncertainty and policy shifts.

The full report — available to download now — explores confidence trends, consolidation activity, sector performance, AI investment and sustainability across Europe’s asset finance landscape.

Download your copy of the full report by completing the form on the right.

Key findings include:

Confidence strengthens despite volatility: Asset finance providers report stronger-than-expected performance in late 2025, with 41% expecting the next six months to improve further. While macroeconomic uncertainty persists, SMEs are increasingly using leasing as a buffer against cost fluctuations, preserving liquidity and flexibility.

Consolidation momentum accelerates: More than 70% of executives believe the industry is primed for further mergers and acquisitions. Following major auto finance transactions — including ALD Automotive’s acquisition of LeasePlan — scale, funding strength and technology capability are becoming decisive competitive advantages.

Banks retreat as captives and independents advance: Only 20% of banks expect to increase lending, compared with significantly stronger appetite among captives and independent lenders. Meanwhile, both corporates and SMEs signal rising borrowing demand, creating opportunities for non-bank providers.

Interest rates stimulate volumes — not margins: Executives see lower rates from the European Central Bank as a demand lever rather than a profitability driver. Any reduction in funding costs is likely to be passed on to customers amid heightened competition.

Automotive faces mixed prospects: Business car volumes remain under pressure as fleets extend contracts and grapple with EV residual value uncertainty. However, deferred replacement demand is boosting optimism in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly as ageing fleets become more expensive to operate.

Plant and machinery lead growth expectations: Automation, robotics and infrastructure investment — including major European public spending programmes — are fuelling strong demand for equipment finance. Manufacturers are turning to flexible leasing to support digital transformation without straining balance sheets.

AI investment surges: Seventy-one percent of lenders expect to increase technology spending in the next six months. Artificial intelligence is moving from experimentation to deployment, embedded in credit decisioning, risk modelling and customer workflows to improve efficiency and scalability.

Green finance remains a long-term opportunity: Although many respondents believe EU sustainability policy may soften, 80% still see green assets and transition finance as significant commercial opportunities. However, high upfront costs and regulatory complexity continue to constrain near-term growth.

Margins steady as OPEX rises: Despite rising staff, compliance and technology costs, most lenders expect profitability to remain stable. Access to wholesale funding remains strong, though concerns around defaults and insolvencies persist.

The Finance Connect European Asset Finance Outlook H1 2026 captures a market adapting to structural change — balancing consolidation, digitisation and sustainability while navigating policy ambiguity and competitive pressure.

As flexible finance becomes increasingly vital for SMEs and corporates, Europe’s asset finance sector is positioning itself not just to withstand volatility, but to capitalise on transformation.