Alta Group warns of “whiplash” cycle in equipment finance

Last year was characterised by uncertainty across the equipment finance industry according to The Alta Group, which has released its 2026 Insights report, delivering expert analysis and a forward-looking outlook. The global advisory firm says its findings show 2025 was “replete with inconsistency and volatility”, but its analysis shows “improving fundamentals and sector-specific tailwinds are restoring optimism” for the year ahead.

“After a year of economic whiplash, the equipment finance industry enters 2026 with momentum, discipline, and renewed confidence. This is also the year AI moves from isolated pilots to becoming a core operational backbone of equipment finance businesses—sharpening credit decisioning, improving efficiency, and strengthening competitiveness in a more complex, selective growth environment,” noted Valerie L. Gerard, Co-CEO of Alta.

Alta Group’s analysis suggested that 2025 ushered in an age of whiplash — a series of “start-stop” cycles during which every forward signal was paired with a cautionary message to hold tight. Businesses that delayed capital investments last year while waiting for greater clarity are realizing they now must move forward, despite the uncertainty, to ensure continuity and growth.

“Last year tested every assumption, yet our industry proved it thrives in complexity. Despite conflicting economic signals, tariff volatility, and shifting rates, equipment finance continued to support mission-critical investment. In 2026, momentum is strong in technology, AI infrastructure, and clean-energy equipment, even as traditional categories remain mixed. Tailwinds such as Fed rate cuts, permanent bonus depreciation, and potential regulatory relief could finally unlock pent-up capex. Still, elevated inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and credit risks mean disciplined underwriting and selective investment remain essential for stability and growth,” Gerard stated.

Amongst its predictions, the consultancy reports that 2026 could see an uneven economy — with growth concentrated in technology and AI infrastructure. US GDP forecasts vary widely across major forecasters, with projections generally ranging from 1.8% to 2.6%, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. Even so, the equipment finance industry is well positioned to support clients navigating selective capex demand, particularly for technology-related assets. Meanwhile, spending on more traditional machinery and equipment is likely to remain mixed, with investment patterns differing significantly by sector.

The 2026 Insights report covers:

· The first-ever Alta Pulsepoint, a heatmap that identifies key risks and opportunities for equipment finance.

· Outlooks for bank-owned, captive-owned, and independent equipment leasing and finance organizations.

· Tailwinds and headwinds shaping equipment finance, from developments that could unleash pent-up capital expenditures, to economic and geopolitical risks.

· Evolving finance strategies and equipment categories. This includes shifts in technology financing away from traditional equipment toward newer types of assets; data center equipment financing; and “intelligence-as-a-service” capabilities that are opening new revenue streams.

· The growing impact of artificial intelligence (AI) advances on the industry.

· In-depth analysis from Alta’s experienced equipment finance advisors.

The Alta Group’s 2026 Insights report is available for download now at

https://thealtagroup.com/the-alta-group-2026-insights/