US equipment finance confidence eases in August

Confidence in the US equipment finance market dipped slightly in August, although industry sentiment remains relatively strong, according to the latest Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) survey.

ELFA’s Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) stood at 62.4 in August 2026, down from 63.7 in July but remaining within the elevated range recorded over the past six months.

The index measures sentiment among senior executives in the US equipment finance sector, an industry valued by ELFA at $1.3 trillion.

Expectations for business conditions were mixed. Some 26.1% of executives expect conditions to improve over the next four months, up from 22.7% in July. However, the proportion expecting conditions to worsen almost doubled from 4.6% to 8.7%.

Expectations for equipment finance demand remained broadly positive. Around 26.1% of respondents expect demand for leases and loans funding capital expenditure to increase over the next four months, compared with 28.6% in July. The remaining 73.9% expect demand to remain unchanged, with no respondents forecasting a decline.

Access to capital was also stable, with a third of executives expecting greater access to funding for equipment acquisitions and the remainder anticipating no change.

Hiring expectations weakened during the month. Some 42.9% of executives expect to increase employee numbers over the next four months, down from 54.6% in July, while 52.4% anticipate maintaining current headcount.

The wider US economic outlook became more cautious. Just 4.8% of respondents rated the current economy as “excellent”, compared with 15% in July, while 95.2% described conditions as “fair”.

Looking ahead six months, 18.2% expect US economic conditions to improve, down from 22.7% in July. Meanwhile, the proportion expecting conditions to worsen rose to 22.7%, from 13.6%.

Despite the broader uncertainty, equipment finance executives highlighted continued resilience in the sector.

“While uncertainty in the economy, rates, politics and world events continues, business volume and performance is a true indicator of the market’s view of the future and it is positive.”

He added that Wintrust had experienced a strong first half and expected its performance to remain strong during the remainder of 2026.

Jeffry Elliott, CEO of Elevex Capital, said he remained pessimistic about the broader economy but bullish on equipment finance, arguing that businesses still need to replace essential equipment regardless of macroeconomic conditions.

He also highlighted supply chain disruption as a significant risk for the sector: “My number one concern is supply chain risk, and I don’t think our industry has priced it: lessees whose equipment sits idle waiting on a part still owe the payment, and uptime is collateral performance. We’re deploying our pre-recession playbook now, not later — discipline purchased early is cheap; purchased late, it isn’t available at any price.”

“Two hurdles in front of the economy, that once they are behind us, will open the economy up and reduce inflation, in my opinion. Those are the Iran war and the mid-term elections.”

Despite the slight decline in the headline index, the August findings indicate that equipment finance executives continue to expect broadly stable demand and access to capital, even as concerns about the wider US economic outlook increase.