EU car trade surplus falls 34% as Chinese imports surge, ACEA reports

The European Union’s automotive trade surplus fell by 34.2% to €28.7bn in the first half of 2026, as rising imports from China and weakening exports put increasing pressure on European vehicle manufacturers, according to the latest report from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).

ACEA’s Economic and Market Report: Global and EU Auto Industry – First Half 2026 reveals a widening gap between vehicle demand and domestic production, despite growth in new car registrations across the EU.

Global new car registrations declined by 4.9% to 35.7 million units during the first six months of 2026, largely driven by a 23.2% contraction in China, where sales fell to 8.5 million vehicles.

In contrast, EU registrations increased by 5.7% to almost 5.9 million units, supported by consumer incentives, competitive pricing and growing demand for electrified vehicles. The UK market also performed strongly, with registrations rising by 9.2%.

However, EU car production declined by 0.4% to approximately six million vehicles, as increased domestic demand was increasingly met by imports rather than European manufacturing.

Chinese imports increase pressure on European manufacturers

The value of EU car imports rose by 15.6% to €40.7bn in the first half of 2026, while exports declined by 12% to €69.4bn.

China was the largest source of imported vehicles, with import values increasing by 70.5% to €10.5bn. Import volumes from China rose by 52.8% to more than 708,000 vehicles, accounting for 34.8% of all EU car imports by volume.

The proportion of cars sold in the EU that were manufactured within the bloc fell to a record-low 68%, while China’s share increased to 9%.

Meanwhile, the proportion of EU-manufactured vehicles sold outside the bloc declined to 32.4%, reflecting weaker export demand and growing international competition.

The UK remained the largest market outside the EU for European-manufactured cars, accounting for more than 663,000 vehicles in the first half of the year.

Electric vehicles gain market share

The report also highlights the continuing shift towards electrification across European automotive markets.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 20.7% of new EU car registrations in the first half of 2026, compared with 15.6% a year earlier.

Hybrid electric vehicles remained the most popular powertrain category, representing 37.3% of registrations, while the combined share of petrol and diesel vehicles declined from 37.8% to 29.7%.

Private buyers accounted for 40% of EU car sales, while company cars represented 15%. Leasing and long-term rentals maintained a 12% share, with short-term rentals also accounting for 12%.

Commercial vehicle registrations rise across Europe

Europe’s commercial vehicle market recorded growth across all major segments during the first half of 2026.

Van registrations increased by 1.9%, while truck registrations rose by 9.8% and bus registrations grew by 22.7%.

ACEA noted that the increases in van and truck registrations largely reflected a recovery from a relatively low base, while demand for buses continued to strengthen.

Commercial vehicle production also showed modest improvement, with EU van output increasing by 0.2%. Truck production is forecast to grow by 1.5% in 2026, while bus production is expected to increase by 2.7%.

Trade performance varied across commercial vehicle segments. The EU’s van trade surplus increased by 12% to €823m, while the truck surplus declined by 9.1% and the bus trade deficit widened to €1.7bn.

Economic pressures threaten automotive recovery

ACEA’s report also highlights a deteriorating economic outlook for the EU, with GDP growth forecast to slow to 1.1% in 2026, down 0.3 percentage points from previous expectations.

The weaker outlook follows the conflict in the Middle East and associated energy price pressures, with EU inflation now projected to reach 3.1% in 2026.

Higher energy costs, weaker investment prospects and continued uncertainty surrounding international trade are expected to weigh on manufacturers and consumer demand.

Overall, the report highlights the contrasting trends shaping Europe’s automotive sector, with stronger vehicle registrations and growing electrification accompanied by weaker domestic production, rising import competition and a narrowing trade surplus.

For European manufacturers, these developments underline the challenges of maintaining competitiveness and production capacity as the global automotive market continues to evolve.